Dear Sir/Madam
In my following thesis, I have tried to analyze US economy ups/down and its relationship with the Wars, Crisis and Chaos across the globe. After reading my thesis one of my online fellow from US, suggested me to read Maxbot one of the well known US Historian. He has covered this subject in depth and wrote several book. However he has covered mostly US war history.
In my thesis I am trying to connect various dots and trying to link US War for Terror to US economy.
Submitted for your kind review and expert advice/remarks.
Regards
FM Shah
US ECONOMY and GLOBAL WAR INDUSTRY
By FM Shah
US economy, banks and financial markets during last century have been designed and structured around cycles of wars, chaos and violence across the globe away from US mainland. Starting with WW I (initiated by Non-state actors), each US recession/depression alternate with some war in some other part of the world away from US main land. Before WW I, many US banks failed and financial system collapsed in the same way as today in 2008/09. Similarly unemployment and inflation in US reached record heights during great depression. Great depression was followed by World War II. As wars, violence and crisis across the globe act as agents for pulling US economy out of recession due to enhanced public spending, reconstruction work after war and preferential monopolies over trade/resource. Therefore in economic recession, US embarked wars and adventures away from main land. Following are the few reason due to which US actively promote, initiate wars, violence, conflicts and chaos across the globe, away from its main land.
1. Wars, conflicts and crisis create direct consumption for US defense/aerospace industry. USA during last century planned thoroughly and laid the necessary groundwork for the growth of the most powerful defense/aerospace industry worth trillion dollars. As a result if we sum up today technological might of US, Defense/Aerospace industry is the back bone of US technological superiority. In Defense/Aerospace industries US firms have monopoly and do not have ant parallel/equal competitor in whole world (including G8 countries).
2. Each war/crisis is followed by construction work which is mostly done by US firms/cartels. Examples are Europe (after WW II) and Iraq reconstruction recently. Transparency international Bribe payers index 2002, ranks defence industry as the 2nd most corrupt business sector- just ahead of oil and gas sector but behind the public works and construction sectors. These all sectors are controlled and manipulated by USA.
3. Wars, crisis and violence results in enhanced public spending. During WWW I (triggered by non state agents) more than 1.2 million US soldiers were employed. Similarly during 1930/40s General Motor was on verge of collapse in the same way as today in 2008/09. Then President Roosevelt gave special orders for making engine for military tanks and aircrafts instead of cars. Same tanks and aircraft were then utilized in WWW II.
4. Each war, conflict and map redrawing have created US dependant states. Examples are Isreal, Saudi Arabia (out of Ottoman Empire after WW I) and Pakistan (Out of British Indian Colony after WW II). Saudi Arabia is depended on USA for last seven decades for all external and internal threats. Israel act as counter balance for US strategic interest in Middle East. Pakistan during its existence for last six decades is dependant on USA for military hardware and financial aid due to similar on going wars, crisis and breeding violence across its Western and Eastern borders. Recent warming of relation and increasing closeness between India and US is direct result of the India and Pakistan escalation. As result both look toward Washington for favorable tap.
5. Wars, crisis and violence create favorable and monopolistic business/trade conditions for most of US firms and MNCs. Wars, crisis and violence create preferential monopolies over trade routes and natural resource.
6. Wars, violence and crisis also result capital flight from whole globe to US main land, which has remained safe from any war, violence and crisis during last century. Whereas US has been remained direct/indirect sponsor, initiator and actor in all such wars, violence and crisis. US has jumped in each war after some Flag post operation like Pearl Harbor (WW II) or 9/11 (War on Terror).
7. Wars, violence and crisis across the globe also pulls down complete region and act as drag on US rival and competitor economies with which US economy is unable to remain competitive and correct its own structural gaps.
8. On domestic front, wars, violence and crisis across the globe are used by Washington for attention divertion from structural flaws in US economic and financial system.
Based on above stated factors we will try to understand the linking relationship between US economy and War on Terror. War on terror quite often appears to be an enigma wrapped in a riddle. The complex consequence of war on terror on societal mosaic and resultant state behaviour of USA and regional actors like Pakistan, Afghanistan and India thereof often denotes more confusion than clarity. Terrorism is the over growth and extension of efforts of CIA for last thirty years in whole region.
Oil is traded in dollars and most of the Arab oil dollars are saved in US banks considered to be safe havens. WAR FOR TERROR resulted turmoil and chaos across Arab countries, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. This turmoil escalated oil and commodities prices exponentially during last eight years. Hence WAR FOR TERROR was crucial and essential non financial bailout package planned for US Banks and Financial Markets. As an example Pakistan oil import bill was US $ 2 Billion in 2000 whereas in 2007 Pakistan oil import bill jumped up to US $ 12 Billion. As result in a single year Pakistan paid additional US $ 10 Billion to various Arab countries. These oil dollars were naturally diverted to US Banks and financial markets. Saudi Arabia has more than 1 trillion $ reserves in various US banks (World GDP is around US $ 55 trillion). Over past eight years several trillions dollars have been diverted each year to US banks and financial market across the globe from more than 150 countries on oil import due to escalating oil prices. It is generally assumed that Wars bills in Afghanistan and Iraq is affecting US economy. However the benefits of WAR FOR TERROR are tremendous if compared with cost of war as without War for terror US economy would have suffered following:-
1. Presently only few US banks have collapsed, however without WAR FOR TERROR and oil price escalation, the number of US Banks and Financial Markets collapsed would have been much larger in number.
2. WAR FOR TERROR delayed US financial systems collapse and banks failure, without war for terror this failure would have occurred much earlier than 2008.
3. Required bailout package would have been much greater in volume than existing US $ 700 + 850 Billion. Recent decline in oil and commodities prices just after announcement of US banks bailout package indicates the direct relationship between oil and commodities prices and US banking/financial markets structural flaw.
4. At domestic front, without fear environment of WAR FOR TERROR, US Taxpayers would have never ever accepted and tolerated US $ 700 + 850 billion.
WAR FOR TERROR regional turmoil had also resulted drag on US rival economies of China, Russia, India, Arab and Iran. These countries constitute more than half of the globe. Sixty-one of the Fortune 500 companies now come from developing countries mostly, up from 28 two decades ago. These are mostly from Asian countries, combining a corporate street savvy, picked up in hardscrabble Asian markets, with cutting-edge techniques to beat US and Western multinationals—and grab a growing share of global wealth and power. The total value of emerging-market shares on world stock exchanges surged from $80 billion a quarter century ago to $1.2 trillion in 2000, and has now topped $6.4 trillion on Morgan Stanley's 26-country Emerging Markets Index. Though emerging-market stocks represent only a modest 10 percent of world market capitalization, they are gaining ground fast. Together the top 100 companies from the world's fastest-growing economies had combined revenues of $715 billion in 2005, and they are growing 10 times faster than their U.S. counterparts and 34 times faster than Germany's, according to the Boston Consulting Group. Their total shareholder return has jumped 150 percent in the past six years, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has declined. Most people are still oblivious to this new reality. The economic balance of power has shifted to Asia and it is new powerhouses of the future. Strikingly, even with the recent US centric financial system and market turbulence triggered by credit crunch, the rival economies to US are proving more stable. The most able learned from dominant US financial and economic systems , copied and in some cases surpassed the US in ways international markets have yet to fully understand. What most of these rival economies competing with US have in common is that they survived brutal, sometimes life-threatening crises, chaos and wars, which instead of bringing them down are making them stronger. As US firms and economy was unable to remain competitive and correct its own structural gaps. Therefore WAR FOR TERROR was initiated for creating chaos, crises, war in order to restrict and limit US competing and rival economies and firms growth.
Hence the basic motivation of WAR FOR TERROR is violence, chaos and anarchy in the whole globe through Islam and Muslim regions. However the question arise why Muslim lands and Islam. Because Muslims and Islam are the most safest, vulnerable and easiest targets for US. Moreover Muslim lands geopolitical location, just under the belly of Russia, India, China and Iran make them perfect target for US neo-colonialism for disturbing whole globe. Other various factors ranging from Al-Qaeada, Taliban, extremism, violence, denuclearization of Pakistan, map redrawing of Pakistan and civilization clash are not root causes of WAR FOR TERROR rather these are desired outcome/effects of the WAR FOR TERROR. Therefore these are secondary in nature and mostly misleading due to disinformation, disorientation media campaigns. These disinformation and disorientation campaigns are paid, sponsored and engineered for creating justification for US presence and role across the globe. Mainstream press/electronic media considers, present and portay themselves as CHAMPIONS OF TRUTH, DEMOCRASY, and JUSTICE. However various anchors pretend asking tough/hard questions but at best they are manipulating and comprising the truth by showing half picture of crisis. Most of the time main stream media avoid context and conceal motives of the ongoing crisis and chaos in the region as they can never tip-toe out of the false perception minefield that they have allowed themselves to be lured into by the US, CIA, ruling world establishment and architects of WAR FOR TERROR. TV Anchors and academics most of the times are bounded by policy, life threats, job fears, temptations, easy going attitude, incompetence and lack of quality research on such topics of the global war econmy. Any TV channel or think tanks prime motivation is money, revenue, coverage, ads and sponsors not truth.
Now many questions arise. Will US transform existing war for terror to another World War away from US main land? Will US invade or sponsor civil war in Pakistan for destabilizing whole region and rival regional powers like China, Russia and Iran. Is 26/11 Bombay blasts a drama similar to 9/11 and weapon of mass destruction for initiating nuclear world war in subcontinent (1/5th of the world) Is India committing suicidal mistake like Pakistan (in September 2001) by joining US WAR FOR TERROR for settling scores against Pakistan? Will India (with 14 separatist movements) be able to safe guard itself by sponsoring a civil war in Pakistan on behalf of US/UK, whereas India has 1800 KMs long border with Pakistan? These are hard and tough question. It is not possible to precisely answers in white and black. However two possibilities emerge. Either US economy will fail with most deadly civil war of human history on US mainland due to economic and financial system. Or another world war has to be fought away from US main land, through which US will rescue its economy. To stop the slide into lawlessness, extremism, anarchy, chaos, poverty and hunger, the restoration of genuine pro-masses policy on war on terror is a matter of life and death for whole region from Russia, Afghanistan, China, Iran, India, Iran and Pakistan. Perhaps one conclusion is that regional powers and states must follow a certain minimum standard of political morality, democratic responsibility and pluralism and social justice if the scourge of terrorism engineered by CIA is to be exorcised from the region. Regional powers like China, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia overall interests should provide the framework for rethinking about evolving philosophy and changing threat perception to the whole globe. Whereas US/UK officials and agencies FBI, MI 6 are escalating the tension between Pakistan and India, however regional powers like China, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia efforts are diffusing the situation and should conflict/war in sub-continent as a strategic priority for the whole region.
If you know the enemy and know your self, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself you will succumb in every battle. SUN TZU
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A Nameless, Helpless, Hopeless Poor Soul and Muslim trying to save himself, Muslims, his countrymen and whole World by his emails from US WAR FOR TERROR, US WW III and US WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION.
It is not if we will be extremists, but what kind of extremists will we be?
- Dr Martin Luther King, Jr.
"In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends".
- Dr Martin Luther King, Jr.
"Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who could not hear the music."
- Angela Monet
"Man is born free, and everywhere he is in chains."
- Jean-Jacques Rousseau
"Every man is guilty of all the good he did not do."
- Voltaire
"The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion but rather by its superiority in applying organized violence. Westerners often forget this fact, non-Westerners never do."
- Samuel P. Huntington (The Clash of Civilizations)
