http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/research/kargil/reidel.pdf
last month to engage Vajpayee and get a deal that would allow Pakistan to withdraw
with some saving of face. He had flown to China to try to get their help to press
India to agree to a fixed timetable for talks to resolve Kashmir… Without something to point to, Sharif warned ominously, the fundamentalists in Pakistan would move against him and this meeting would be his last with Clinton. Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was? Did Sharif know his military was preparing their nuclear tipped missiles? …Sharif asked again to have me leave the room. The President dismissed this with a wave of his hand and then told Sharif that he warned him on the second not to come to Washington unless he was ready to withdraw without any precondition or quid pro quo….The President was getting angry. He told Sharif that he had asked repeatedly for Pakistani help to bring Usama bin Ladin to justice from Afghanistan. Sharif had promised often to do so but had done nothing. Instead the ISI worked with bin Ladin and the Taliban to foment terrorism. …Sharif was getting exhausted. He denied that he had ordered the preparation of their missile force, said he was against that but he was worried for his life now back in Pakistan. …end excerpt
American Diplomacy and the
1999 Kargil Summit at
Blair House
Bruce Riedel
*Bruce Riedel was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Near East and
South Asia Affairs in the National Security Council at the White House from 1997 to 2001. In
that role, Mr. Riedel was President Clinton's senior adviser on South Asian issues and
traveled with the President to India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in March 2000. His prior office
was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Near East and South Asia Issues in the
Pentagon. He is a graduate of Brown (BA) and Harvard (MA) Universities and is currently
a member of the Royal College of Defence Studies in London.
INTRODUCTION
July 4
th, 1999 was probably the most unusual July 4th in American diplomatic history,certainly among the most eventful. President Clinton engaged in one of the most
sensitive diplomatic high wire acts of any administration, successfully persuading
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to pull back Pakistani backed fighters from
a confrontation with India that could threaten to escalate into a nuclear war between
the world's two newest nuclear powers. The events of that 4
th acceleratedthe road to a fundamental reconciliation between the world's two largest democracies,
India and the United States, but also set the scene for another in the series of
military coups that have marred Pakistani democracy. As the President's Special
Assistant for Near Eastern and South Asia Affairs at the National Security Council
I had the honor of a unique seat at the table and the privilege of being a key adviser
for the day's events.
K
ARGIL AND KASHMIRFor fifty years Pakistan and India have quarreled over the fate of Kashmir. The
dispute is not a cold confrontation like that between the two superpowers over
Germany in the Cold War. Rather it is a hot confrontation, which has been punctuated
by three wars. Since the early 1990s it has been particularly violent with
almost daily firefights along the Line of Control (LOC) that divides the state and
within the valley between the Indian security forces and the Muslim insurgency.
Both India and Pakistan deploy hundreds of thousands of troops in the area.
In the spring of 1999 the Pakistanis sought to gain a strategic advantage in the
northern front of the LOC in a remote part of the Himalayas called Kargil. Traditionally
the Indian and Pakistani armies had withdrawn each fall from their most
advanced positions in the mountains to avoid the difficulties of manning them during
the winter and then returned to them in the spring. The two armies respected each
other's deployment pattern and did not try to take advantage of this seasonal change.
In the winter of 1999, however, Pakistani backed Kashmir militants and regular
army units moved early into evacuated positions of the Indians, cheating on the
tradition. The Pakistani backed forces thus gained a significant tactical advantage
over the only ground supply route Indian forces can use to bring in supplies to the
most remote eastern third of Kashmir. By advancing onto these mountaintops overlooking
the Kargil highway, Pakistan was threatening to weaken Indian control over
a significant (yet barren) part of the contested province.
What was all the more alarming for Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's hardline
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government was that the Pakistani military incursion
came after the Prime Minister had made a bold effort in early 1999 at reconciliation
with Pakistan by traveling by bus to the Pakistani city of Lahore for a summit
with Sharif. The spirit of Lahore was intended to be the mechanism for breaking
the two giants of south Asia out of their half century of violence and fear and
moving the subcontinent to a better future. Instead, the Indians felt betrayed, deceived
and misled by Sharif and were determined to recover their lost territory.
By late May and early June 1999 a serious military conflict was underway along a
hundred fifty kilometer front in the mountains above Kargil (some of which rise to a
height of 17,000 feet above sea level), including furious artillery clashes, air battles
and costly infantry assaults by Indian troops against well dug in Pakistani forces.
Pakistan denied its troops were involved, claiming that only Kashmiri militants were
doing the fighting — a claim not taken seriously anywhere.
The situation was further clouded because it was not altogether clear who was
calling the shots in Islamabad. Prime Minister Sharif had seemed genuinely interested
in pursuing the Lahore process when he met with Vajpayee and he had argued
eloquently with a series of American guests, including U.S.UN Ambassador Bill
Richardson, that he wanted an end to the fifty year old quarrel with India. His
military chief, General Pervez Musharraf, seemed to be in a different mold. Musharraf
was a refugee from New Delhi, one of the millions sent into exile in the 1947 catastrophe
that split British India and the subcontinent. He was said to be a hardliner on
Kashmir, a man some feared was determined to humble India once and for all.
We will probably never know for sure the exact calculus of decision making in
Islamabad. Each of the players has his own reasons for selling a particular version
of the process. Musharraf and Sharif have already put out different versions of
who said what to whom. Others like former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir
Bhutto have also given their views. What is clear is that the civil-military dynamic
between Sharif in Islamabad and Musharraf in Rawalpindi was confused and tense.
The United States was alarmed from the beginning of the conflict because of its
potential for escalation. We could all too easily imagine the two parties beginning to
mobilize for war, seeking third party support (Pakistan from China and the Arabs,
India from Russia and Israel) and a deadly descent into full scale conflict all along
the border with a danger of nuclear cataclysm.
The nuclear scenario was obviously very much on our minds. Since the surprise
Indian tests in May 1998 the danger of a nuclear exchange had dominated American
nightmares about South Asia. Clinton had spent days trying to argue Sharif out
of testing in response and had offered him everything from a State dinner to billions
in new U.S. assistance. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, Central Command
chief General Tony Zinni, Assistant Secretary for South Asia Rick Inderfurth
and I had traveled to Islamabad to try to persuade him, but all to no avail.
After a few weeks of agonizing, Sharif had gone forward with his own tests citing
as a flimsy excuse an alleged Israel plot to destroy Pakistan's nuclear facilities in
collusion with India. (I had the Israeli Chief of Staff deny categorically to the
Pakistani Ambassador in Washington any such plan the night before the tests but
that fact mattered little to Islamabad). In the new post-May era we confronted the
reality of two nuclear tested states whose missiles could be fired with flight times of
three to five minutes from launch to impact. One well-informed assessment concluded
that a Pakistani strike on just one Indian city, Bombay, with a small bomb
would kill between 150,000 and 850,000 alone.
Given these consequences for escalation, the U.S. was quick to make known our
view that Pakistan should withdraw its forces back behind the Line of Control immediately.
At first Rick Inderfurth and Undersecretary Thomas Pickering conveyed
this view privately to the Pakistani and Indian ambassadors in Washington in
late May. Secretary Albright then called Sharif two days later and General Tony
Zinni, who had a very close relationship with his Pakistani counterparts, also called
Chief of Army Staff General Musharraf. These messages did not work. So we
went public and called upon Pakistan to respect the LOC. I laid out our position in
4
5
an on the record interview at the Foreign Press Center in Washington. The President
then called both leaders in mid-June and sent letters to each pressing for a
Pakistani withdrawal and Indian restraint.
The Pakistanis and Indians were both surprised by the U.S. position: Pakistan
because Islamabad assumed the U.S. would always back them against India and
India because they could not believe the U.S. would judge the crisis on its merits,
rather than side automatically with its long time Pakistani ally. Both protagonists
were rooted in the history of their half-century conflict and astounded that the U.S.
was not bound by the past.
For the previous fifty years, with a few exceptions, the United States had been tied
to Pakistan, while India had been aligned with the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
Pakistan had been the take off point for U2s flying over Russia and for Henry
Kissinger's trip to China. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s
Pakistan had been the U.S.' critical ally in aiding the mujahedin freedom fighters
against communism, along with Saudi Arabia. In 1971 the Nixon Administration
had "tilted" toward Pakistan and against India during the war that led to Bangladesh's
freedom. Although U.S.-Pakistani relations had cooled significantly after 1990 when
the U.S. determined Islamabad was building a nuclear arsenal (leading to an aid
suspension), the popular and elite perception in both countries was that the U.S. was
more pro-Pakistani than pro-Indian. The imposition of tough sanctions on both
countries in 1998 (so-called Glenn sanctions) after they tested nuclear weapons had
not altered the perception of American bias for Pakistan.
N
AWAZ CALLS FOR HELPBy late June the situation was deteriorating fast. The two parties were engaged in
an intense conflict along the Kargil front and both were mobilizing their forces for
larger conflict. Casualties were mounting on both sides. Our intelligence assess
ments were pointing toward the danger of full-scale war becoming a real possibility.The danger was that the Indians would grow weary of attacking uphill (actually upmountain)
into well dug in Pakistani positions. The casualties the Indian forces
were taking were mounting. New Delhi could easily decide to open another front
elsewhere along the LOC to ease its burden and force the Pakistanis to fight on
territory favorable to India. Even if the conflict remained confined solely to Kargil,
the danger of escalation was high. While the Indian forces were making some
progress against the Pakistanis and their militant allies, it was slow and both sides
were mobilizing more and more of their regular forces.
Sharif became increasingly desperate as he saw how isolated Pakistan was in the
world. He urgently requested American intervention to stop the Indian counterattack.
Washington was clear — the solution required a Pakistani withdrawal behind
the LOC, nothing else would do. In the last days of June Sharif began to ask to see
President Clinton directly to plead his case. Sharif had met the President several
times earlier, in New York and Washington and at the funeral of King Hussein in
Amman. They had also spoken extensively in the spring of 1998 when the President
had pleaded with Sharif not to follow India's example and test its nuclear
weapons. Although that effort failed (despite promises of enormous U.S. aid to
Pakistan), the two leaders had developed a genuine personal bond and felt comfortable
talking to each other.
On the 2
nd of July the Prime Minister put in a call to the President. He appealed forAmerican intervention immediately to stop the fighting and to resolve the Kashmir
issue. The President was very clear — he could help only if Pakistan first withdrew
to the LOC. The President also consulted with Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee on
the phone. The Indians were adamant — withdrawal to the LOC was essential,
Vajpayee would not negotiate under the threat of aggression. The President sought
to reassure Vajpayee that we would not countenance Pakistani aggression, not reward
them for violating the LOC and that we stood by our commitment to the
Lahore process, i.e. direct talks between India and Pakistan were the only solution
to Kashmir, not third party intervention.
On the 3
rd, Sharif was more desperate and told the President he was ready to comeimmediately to Washington to seek our help. The President repeated his caution —
come only if you are ready to withdraw, I can't help you if you are not ready to pull
back. He urged Sharif to consider carefully the wisdom of a trip to Washington
under these constraints. Sharif said he was coming and would be there on the 4
th.The White House and State Department spent much of the rest of the 3
rd preparing.Logistics were one problem. Blair House had to be made available for the Pakistanis
and the Secret Service needed to secure Pennsylvania Avenue. As any
visitor to the Mall on a 4
th of July knows, tens of thousands of Americans comedown to the Mall to see the fireworks, many come via the area around the White
House and would be inconvenienced by a shut down of Pennsylvania Avenue.
A small group also prepared for the substance of the encounter. I led the effort at
the NSC to prepare the President, National Security Advisor Samuel R. (Sandy)
Berger and Chief of Staff John Podesta. The State effort was led by Deputy
Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, the senior point man on South Asian issues in the
Department and Karl (Rick) Inderfurth, Assistant Secretary for South Asian Affairs
at State, whose bureau had the strongest expertise on the Subcontinent in the
U.S. government. Strobe, Rick and I had already logged many hours traveling to
South Asia to work to advance the President's agenda of improving our relations
with this too long neglected part of the world.
The product of this work was two pieces of paper. The first was a draft statement
the President would issue if Sharif agreed to pulling back his forces to the LOC, the
second a statement which would be used if Sharif refused. The latter would make
clear that the blame for the crisis in South Asia lay solely with Pakistan.
7
8
On the third, more information developed about the escalating military situation in
the area — disturbing evidence that the Pakistanis were preparing their nuclear
arsenals for possible deployment. Sharif's intentions also became clearer. He was
bringing his wife and children with him to Washington, a possible indication that he
was afraid he might not be able to go home if the summit failed or that the military
was telling him to leave. At a minimum, Sharif seemed to be hedging his bet on
whether this would be a round trip.
Sharif would be met at Dulles Airport, where his commercial PIA flight was being
diverted to from JFK, by the Saudi Ambassador Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Bandar
had a long history of helping assist key American diplomatic initiatives and also had
worked with Pakistan extensively in the past during the Afghan war against the
Soviets. Bandar asked for a briefing on what the President needed from Sharif. I
met with him in his McLean home and gave him our sense of the crisis. Bandar
promised to weigh in forcefully with Sharif on the ride from Dulles to Blair House,
and he secured Crown Prince Abdallah's support for our position.
British Prime Minister Blair also contacted Sharif to weigh in as well on the need for
withdrawal. Like us, the British were increasingly worried over the direction the
crisis was headed and the danger of escalation to full- scale war. Other governments,
including Pakistan's ally China, shared these concerns as well and we asked
Beijing to weigh in with Islamabad. We concluded that the Chinese played a constructive
role in trying to defuse the crisis.
T
HE 4TH DAWNSThe President's advisers gathered early on the 4
th to brief him on the meeting aheadand provide advice. The mood was somber. Sandy Berger opened the session by
telling the President that this could be the most important foreign policy meeting of
his Presidency because the stakes could include nuclear war. He had to press
Sharif to withdraw while also giving him enough cover to keep him in office to
deliver the retreat. Strobe noted the importance of being very clear with Nawaz
and not letting the Prime Minister be alone with the President so that he could later
claim commitments not made. A record of who said what was critical. Rick and I
briefed the President on the latest information we had.
There was more disturbing information about Pakistan preparing its nuclear arsenal
for possible use. I recommended that he use this only when Sharif was without his
aides, particularly not when the Foreign Secretary, Shamshad Ahmad, who was
known to be very close to Pakistani military intelligence (ISI) was in earshot.
Bandar called and told me the results of his discussion with Sharif. The PM was
distraught, deeply worried about the direction the crisis was going toward disaster,
but equally worried about his own hold on power and the threat from his military
chiefs who were pressing for a tough stand. I briefed the President and the team.
He said he was ready to go and we crossed Pennsylvania Avenue to Blair House.
Sharif had a couple of hours to rest and refresh himself since his arrival early in the
morning. The President's meeting opened at around 1:30 in the afternoon with a
plenary session with their teams. The President began by noting he had to travel on
the 5
th to America's poorest states, a long planned event to help eradicate poverty inAmerica and thus was glad the PM could be available on the 4
th. He then framedthe day's discussion by handing the PM a cartoon from the day's Chicago
Tribunenewspaper that showed Pakistan and India as nuclear bombs fighting with each
other. Clinton said this is what worried him.
Sharif opened by thanking the President for resolving the long outstanding quarrel
between the two countries over the suspended delivery of F16 fighters — suspended
when sanctions were imposed in 1990. Clinton had secured a sizable cash
payment to Pakistan that compensated Islamabad for the cost of the never delivered
fighters.
9
Sharif then went into a long and predictable defense of the Kashmiri cause. He
appealed to the President to intervene directly to settle the dispute by pressing India.
Much of his argumentation we had heard before — only the U.S. could save a
billion and a half South Asians from war, if only the President would devote 1% of
the effort he gave to the Arab-Israeli dispute to Kashmir it would be resolved, etc.
The President pushed back by reminding Sharif that the U.S. played a role in the
Arab-Israeli conflict because both sides invited it to mediate, that is not the case
with Kashmir. The best approach was the road begun at Lahore, that is direct
contact with India. Pakistan had completely undermined that opening by attacking
at Kargil, it must now retreat before disaster set in.
Sharif noted that India had been the first to test nuclear weapons and refused to hold
an election to determine the future of Kashmir. Again the President said that was
all true but the fundamental reality of the day was the Pakistani army and its militant
allies were on the wrong side of the LOC and must withdraw. Only if Pakistan
withdrew completely and quickly could the U.S. help Islamabad. A full and complete
withdrawal without pre-conditions would give the U.S. some leverage with
India, money in the bank of showing America could help India.
The President urged Sharif to give him that money in the bank. But he warned there
could be no quid pro quo, no hint that America was rewarding Pakistan for its
aggression nor for threatening its nuclear arsenal at India. If the United States
appeared to be acting under the gun of a nuclear threat its ability to restrain others
from threatening use of their nuclear forces would be forever undermined. Sharif
must act today.
The room was tense and Sharif visibly worried. The President told the Pakistani
team that he had just read John Keegan's new book on the first World War. The
Kargil crisis seemed to be eerily like 1914, armies mobilizing and disaster looming.
The President had sent Strobe and his team to South Asia a half dozen times in the
10
last year to try to halt the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, ease Indo-
Pakistani tensions and build confidence on both sides. Pakistan was threatening to
undo all of that and plunge the world into its first nuclear exchange.
Sharif handed the President a document which he said was a non-paper provided to
him early in the crisis by Vajpayee in which the two would agree to restore the
sanctity of the LOC (a formula for Pakistani withdrawal) and resume the Lahore
process. Sharif said at first India had agreed to this non-paper but then changed its
mind. Sharif then asked that the meeting continue just with the two leaders.
Everyone left the room except Sharif, Clinton and myself. The President insisted he
wanted a record of the event. Sharif asked again to be left alone, the President
refused. The Prime Minister then briefed the President on his frantic efforts in the
last month to engage Vajpayee and get a deal that would allow Pakistan to withdraw
with some saving of face. He had flown to China to try to get their help to press
India to agree to a fixed timetable for talks to resolve Kashmir. Sharif's brief was
confused and vague on many details but he seemed a man possessed with fear of
war.
The Prime Minister told Clinton that he wanted desperately to find a solution that
would allow Pakistan to withdraw with some cover. Without something to point to,
Sharif warned ominously, the fundamentalists in Pakistan would move against him
and this meeting would be his last with Clinton.
Clinton asked Sharif if he knew how advanced the threat of nuclear war really was?
Did Sharif know his military was preparing their nuclear tipped missiles? Sharif
seemed taken aback and said only that India was probably doing the same. The
President reminded Sharif how close the U.S. and Soviet Union had come to nuclear
war in 1962 over Cuba. Did Sharif realize that if even one bomb was dropped…
Sharif finished his sentence and said it would be a catastrophe.
11
Sharif asked again to have me leave the room. The President dismissed this with a
wave of his hand and then told Sharif that he warned him on the second not to come
to Washington unless he was ready to withdraw without any precondition or quid
pro quo. Sharif had been warned by others as well. The President said he had a
draft statement ready to issue that would pin all the blame for the Kargil crisis on
Pakistan tonight.
The President was getting angry. He told Sharif that he had asked repeatedly for
Pakistani help to bring Usama bin Ladin to justice from Afghanistan. Sharif had
promised often to do so but had done nothing. Instead the ISI worked with bin Ladin
and the Taliban to foment terrorism. His draft statement would also mention
Pakistan's role in supporting terrorists in Afghanistan and India. Was that what
Sharif wanted, Clinton asked? Did Sharif order the Pakistani nuclear missile force
to prepare for action? Did he realize how crazy that was? You've put me in the
middle today, set the U.S. up to fail and I won't let it happen. Pakistan is messing
with nuclear war.
Sharif was getting exhausted. He denied that he had ordered the preparation of
their missile force, said he was against that but he was worried for his life now back
in Pakistan. The President suggested a break to allow each leader to meet with his
team and consider next steps. He would also call Prime Minister Vajpayee to brief
him on the discussions. After ninety minutes of intense discussion the meeting
broke up.
The President and I briefed the others in our room in Blair House while Sharif
huddled with his team in another room. The President put through a short call to
New Delhi just to tell Vajpayee that he was holding firm on demanding the withdrawal
to the LOC. Vajpayee had little to say, even asking the President "what do
you want me to say?" There was no give in New Delhi and none was asked for.
After the intensity of the first round, the President lay down on a sofa to rest his
12
eyes for a few minutes. We all were consumed by the tension of the moment and
drama of the day.
After an hour break the President, Sharif and I returned to the discussion. The
President put on the table a short statement to be issued to the press drawing from
the non-paper Sharif had given us and the statement we had drafted before the
meeting to announce agreement on withdrawal to the LOC. The key sentence read
"the Prime Minister has agreed to take concrete and immediate steps for the restoration
of the LOC." Strobe, Sandy, Rick and I had drafted this key sentence during
the break. The statement also called for a ceasefire once the withdrawal was
completed and restoration of the Lahore process. Finally, the statement included a
reaffirmation of the President's long standing plans to visit South Asia.
The President was clear and firm. Sharif had a choice, withdraw behind the LOC
and the moral compass would tilt back toward Pakistan or stay and fight a wider and
dangerous war with India without American sympathy. Sharif read the statement
several times quietly. He asked to talk with his team and we adjourned again.
After a few minutes Sharif returned with good news. The statement was acceptable
with one addition. Sharif wanted a sentence added that would say "the President
would take personal interest to encourage an expeditious resumption and intensification
of the bilateral efforts (i.e. Lahore) once the sanctity of the LOC had been
fully restored."
The President handed the sentence to me and asked my opinion. I said we could
easily agree to this because the President already supported the Lahore process but
we need a clear understanding on how we would portray the LOC issue — we
would need to explain to our press that this language meant a Pakistani withdrawal.
Clinton agreed and told Sharif that was his intention. Reluctantly, the Prime Minister
said yes.
13
The mood changed in a nano-second. Clinton told Sharif that they had tested their
personal relationship hard that day but they had reached the right ending. Once the
withdrawal from Kargil was done the U.S. would have more credibility with India
and the President expressed his determination to do what he could on Kashmir.
The President called Vajpayee to preview the statement.
As the U.S. delegation was exiting the door from Blair House, Sharif's Foreign
Secretary Ahmad, made a last minute effort to reopen the text. He approached
Sandy Berger with a list of alterations in the text. Sandy dismissed him with a curt
'your boss says it is ok as is.'
The press briefing by Rick and I was a tough event. The journalists were convinced
there must be some quid for Pakistani withdrawal. We made clear there was none.
A
FTERMATH — NEW DEAL IN NEW DELHI,C
OUP IN ISLAMABADSharif came to the White House early the next morning for a photo op with his
family and the President. His mood was glum, he was not looking forward to the
trip home. The Prime Minister knew he had done the right thing for Pakistan and
the world, but he was not sure his army would see it that way. He stopped in
London and Riyadh on the way home. Both our allies gave him their support.
The Prime Minister was good to his word. He ordered his army to pull back its men
and its allies and they did so. India was jubilant, Pakistan morose. The fighting had
taken a toll. Estimates of the dead on both sides vary. Indians usually claim 1300
killed on both sides, Pakistanis cite around 1700.
The President also lived up to his word. As soon as the Pakistani forces were back
across the LOC he pressed India for a cease-fire in the Kargil sector. After this
14
occurred he privately invited Sharif to send a senior trusted official to Washington to
begin discrete discussions on how to follow up on his "personal commitment" to the
Lahore process.
It soon became apparent, however, that all was not well in Islamabad. For weeks
the Prime Minister did not respond to our queries to send someone to discuss Kashmir.
The only explanation offered was that it was difficult to decide whom the right
person combining the PM's trust and the background on Kashmir was. We concluded
the Pakistani internal situation was not ripe for Sharif to take action.
Finally in September Sharif sent his brother, the governor of Lahore, to Washington
for the long awaited discussions. Rick Inderfurth and I met with him for hours in his
suite at the Willard Hotel. A day-long downpour of rain made the capital a wet and
dreary place.
We tried to get a feel for how the Prime Minister wanted to pursue the Kashmir
issue. Instead, Shahbaz Sharif only wanted to discuss what the U.S. could do to
help his brother stay in power. He all but said that they knew a military coup was
coming.
On October 12, 1999 it came. Ironically, it was Nawaz who provoked the coup's
timing by trying to exile Musharraf when he was on an official visit to Sri Lanka. His
plane was denied permission to return to Karachi or anywhere in Pakistan. The
military rebelled and forced open the airport. Within hours, Nawaz was in jail and
the army was in control.
The President instructed the NSC to do all we could to convince the new Pakistani
leadership not to execute Sharif as General Zia had executed Prime Minister Bhutto
in 1978. That outcome would have been a horrible one for all Pakistanis and would
have considerably set back the country's already slim hope of a better future. The
15
President urged Musharraf to let Sharif free. With our encouragement the Saudis
pressed hard for Sharif's freedom. Finally, in December 2000 Sharif was exiled to
the Saudi Arabian Kingdom.
Why did Sharif agree to withdraw on the fourth? Only the former Prime Minister
can answer this question authoritatively. What is clear is that President Clinton was
direct and forceful with him at Blair House — there were no options except withdrawal
or isolation. Whatever hopes Sharif and the rest of the Pakistani leadership
had of getting American support for their Kargil adventure vanished that afternoon
in Washington.
The most important strategic result of the Blair House summit was its impact on
Indo-U.S. relations. The clarity of the American position on Kargil and its refusal to
give Pakistan any reward for its aggression had an immediate and dynamic impact
on the relationship. Doors opened in New Delhi to Americans that had been shut
for years. The Indian elite — including the military — and the Indian public began
to shed long held negative perceptions of the U.S.
The stage was set for the unprecedented back to back summits between President
Clinton and Prime Minister Vajpayee in 2000. After a quarter century gap in Presidential
visits to India, Clinton's spring visit symbolized a new level of maturity in the
relationship between the world's two largest democracies. Vajpayee's return visit
formalized the commitment.
President Bush has accelerated and intensified the process of U.S.-India rapprochement.
After the September 11
th attacks on America, he lifted the Glenn sanctionsimposed after the 1998 tests and welcomed Vajpayee to the Oval Office. U.S.
relations with Pakistan have substantially improved as well thanks to the Musharraf's
government's role in the war against the Taliban and Usama bin Ladin, a striking
reversal of earlier Pakistani policy. But the tensions following the attack on the
16
Indian Parliament show the Kashmir issue remains as dangerous today, however, as
it was in 1999, a time bomb capable of exploding upon the subcontinent with little or
no warning.
India-Pakistan Timeline
August 1947 India and Pakistan become independent nations
October 1947
Kashmir signs Instrument of Accession, giving India legal
claim over the territory, First undeclared between Pakistan
and India over Kashmir
1965 Second India-Pakistan war over Kashmir
March 1971
East Pakistan secedes from Pakistan and forms the nation
of Bangladesh; Civil War erupts in Pakistan, Third India-
Pakistan war as India supports East Pakistan
May 1974 India conducts underground nuclear test at Pokhran,
Rajasthan
December 1988 India and Pakistan sign agreement prohibiting attack on
each other's nuclear installations
January 1996 India tests Prithvi II, a missile capable of carrying nuclear
weapons
April 1998 Pakistan tests Ghauri missile, capable of reaching 937
miles
May 11, 1998 India conducts three underground nuclear tests in Rajasthan
May 13, 1998 India conducts two more underground nuclear tests to
complete its nuclear test program
May 28, 1998 Pakistan conducts its five underground nuclear tests for the
first time
May 1999 Conflict between India and Pakistan in Kargil in Kashmir
-----------------------------------------------------------
N A D E E M M A L I K
Director Programme
AAJ TV
ISLAMABAD
00-92-321-5117511
nadeem.malik@hotmail.com
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