NADEEM MALIK: News Guru on Calculus of Politics

Calculus of Politics

Elections since 1970 show four clusters of voters, PPP, PML, Religious and Regional

PPP/PML bag roughly 60-80 pct votes

Provincial calculus holds the key to national elections

First Past the Post Style of Politics

Punjab accounts for 55 pct seats; Sindh 25 pct; NWFP 15 pct and Balochistan 5 pct

MQM enjoys uni-polar contest in urban Sindh and PPP in rural Sinsh

Since 1988 MQM has never scored less than 40 pct votes in urban Sindh

In rural Sindh, PPP has never bagged less than 40 pct votes

Punjab voting pattern is bi-polar

PPP and PML(s) scored an average of more than 80 pct during all recent elections

PPP, PML(s), Religious parties (JUI, JI) and Regionals (ANP) dominate NWFP

Balochistan is immensely multi-polar in voting structure

In 2002, majority votes gravitated in favour of MMA

Punjab shows most unpredictable prospects in 2008

DRAMATIC 5 PCT SWING FACTOR IN PUNJAB

Muslim League score three times more votes than PPP in 1997 electiosn in Punjab 59:22

Muslim League vote is going to be divided in 2008

PPP likely to score 25 pct vote sin Punjab

Muslim League(s) vote is around 55 pct in Punjab

JI, JUI, JUP, other parties to bag remaining 20 pct votes in Punjab

5-10 pct en-bloc rallying of votes brings massive swing

Survey:

SHOULD ELECTIONS BE BOYCOTTED?

Recent poll showed 56 pct in favour of boycott

41 pct favour participation in election

IS THE PUBLIC CONCERNED ABOUT MEDIA FREEDOMS?

GAINERS: Judiciary: (+) 17%; Media (+) 12%;

LOSERS: Government: (-) 41%; Parliament: (-) 22%; Police: (-) 24%; Army: (-) 12%

80 oppose restrictions against media

ARE ORDINARY PEOPLE BOTHERED BY EMERGENCY RULE?

71 oppose emergency rule in Pakistan

40 believe suspension of Constitutional government affects their personal lives

EMERGENCY IS UNPOPULAR,

BUT WHY ARE STREETS EMPTY OF AGITATION?

Proponents of agitation 43 pct

Opponents of agitation 40 pct

Swing Factor in

BI-POLAR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS IN PUNJAB

National Assembly Elections	All Pakistan winner in National Assembly	Voting Ratio: ML and PPP in Punjab	Edge of National Assembly Seats in Punjab
1988	PPP (Winner gets 39% vote nationally)	PPP ahead by 2% (40:38%)	PPP ahead by 8 seats (53:45)seats
1990	ML (Winner gets 37% vote nationally)	ML ahead by 10% (49:39%)	ML ahead by 78 seats (92:14)seats
1993	PPP (Winner gets 38% vote nationally)	ML ahead by 6% (45:39%)	ML ahead by 5 seats (52:47)seats
1997	ML (Winner gets 46% vote nationally)	ML ahead by 37% (59:22%)	ML ahead by 107 seats (107:zero)seats

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N A D E E M M A L I K
CNBC PAKISTAN
BUREAU CHIEF
ISLAMABAD
0321-5117511

16^th Floor, Saudi Pak Tower, 61-A Jinnah Avenue, Islamabad. 051-2800113-14, Fax: 051-2800118

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Nadeem Malik