Shove off Sharif
Sep 10th 2007 | RAWALPINDI
From Economist.com
Pakistan is in an undeclared state of emergency as Nawaz Sharif is ejected from the country
NAWAZ SHARIF, a former prime minister of Pakistan, landed in Rawalpindi on the morning of Monday September 10th with his head bowed in prayer and supporters chanting political slogans. He was back from a seven-year-long exile, in Saudi Arabia and Britain, to challenge Pakistan's military ruler, Pervez Musharraf. "I'm not fearful, I'm fearless," Mr Sharif said.
It was a brave endeavour—from a man whose political career has long been tarnished by allegations of thuggery, corruption and misrule. But it was shortlived. In the arrivals hall Mr Sharif was promptly charged over an alleged money-laundering scam of the mid-1990s. He was then separated from his raucous retinue, bundled into a waiting aircraft, and flown to Saudi Arabia. It was unclear whether Mr Sharif had even, officially, entered Pakistan, despite a recent ruling by the country's Supreme Court that he had an "inalienable right" to do so.
The incident at least simplified a political crisis that has been boiling in Pakistan for several months. With an election approaching, General Musharraf wants a fresh term of presidential office and another supportive—or craven—government elected beneath him. Yet he is facing an invigorated opposition, centred on the Supreme Court. Its judges are likely to be asked to appraise the constitutionality of any extension to General Musharraf's rule, even as unprecedented feelings of power and separation beat in their hearts.
The court's ruling that Mr Sharif could return to Pakistan, although General Musharraf had said that he could not, was an example of this. In banishing him nonetheless, the general has told the custodians of Pakistan's constitution to go hang. In effect, the country is now in an undeclared state of emergency.
How it will respond is more complicated. Mr Sharif's arrest sparked a few protests in Rawalpindi but was more notable for the failure of his Pakistan Muslim League-N party to organise almost any gathering in Punjab, the country's most populous province and the party's stronghold. It did not help that General Musharraf's agents had arrested most of the party's leaders and, reportedly, 2,000 of its activists in recent days. Nonetheless, Mr Sharif has not yet raised enough of a clamour to trouble a military dictator.
If not he, then who? One candidate is the country's lawyers. Their recent demonstrations in support of the Supreme Court's top judge, Iftikhar Chaudhry, have emboldened the judges as a whole. Hundreds of thousands of ordinary Pakistanis joined the lawyers to cheer for Mr Chaudhry—and he was reinstated. Now that General Musharraf has treated the court's ruling on Mr Sharif's right to return with such contempt, the lawyers may protest again. The Supreme Court is expected to hear petitions against Mr Sharif's rough treatment on Tuesday.
The only other obvious champion for the opposition would be Mr Sharif's great rival, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Benazir Bhutto. But in recent months Ms Bhutto has not sought to confront General Musharraf, rather she has tried to coddle him. In exchange for freedom from a fistful of corruption charges against her, and other concessions, she has provisionally offered to support General Musharraf's bid for presidential re-election.
While still interested in maintaining a scrap of democratic cover, General Musharraf seemed keen on this co-operation. But it has looked unlikely in recent days, especially after Mr Sharif's rude ejection. Dallying with a dictator is a risky strategy for Ms Bhutto, the leader of Pakistan's most liberal party. Attaching herself to one could leave her already fraying creditability in tatters.
For his part, if there are no serious protests in next few days, General Musharraf might think he does not need Ms Bhutto. His supporters can muster the simple majority in Parliament that he needs to get himself re-elected president, while also retaining his job as army chief. If he is happy to defy the orders of the Supreme Court—which would probably take exception to this action—he would not need to rewrite the constitution in his favour, a step requiring a two-thirds majority in Parliament. Then he would not need the support that Ms Bhutto has all but promised.
In the short term, this draconian drift might just put a lid on Pakistan's latest troubles. After all, Pakistanis are accustomed to the bit and bridle of military rule. But a solution that sustains an army dictatorship by smashing faltering institutions and democratic politicians, in a country where supremely undemocratic Islamist forces are seething, does not augur much stability.
-----------------------------------------------------------
N A D E E M M A L I K
CNBC PAKISTAN
BUREAU CHIEF
ISLAMABAD
0321-5117511
16th Floor,
Express yourself instantly with MSN Messenger! MSN Messenger Download today it's FREE!
