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Overview
The modern state of Pakistan came into being in 1947 following a partition of India and has been plagued by chronic unrest ever since. Pakistan is located in South Asia, bordering India, Afghanistan, Iran, and China. Following the September 11 terrorist attacks, Pakistan's strategic location has placed it on the frontlines of the Global War on Terror (GWOT). The major ethnic groups in Pakistan include Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashtun, Baloch, and Muhajir. Most of the population (97%) is Muslim although tensions between the majority Sunni (77%) and minority Shia (20%) factions have led to ongoing outbreaks of violence. In addition, violence between Muslims and Christian and Hindu groups (3%) has led to tens of thousands of deaths since independence. Pakistan has a population of approximately 165 million and population growth rate of 2.09%. It is also an impoverished and underdeveloped nation, with an annual GDP per capita rate of $2,400. A simmering conflict with India over Kashmir, as well as the inability of the government to crack down on radical groups in the autonomous regions of Baluchistan and the North West Frontier Province, have been the source of wider regional instability.
Social Indicators
The October 2005 earthquake, which registered a 7.6 on the Richter scale, is the single largest factor in Pakistan's significant jump on the Failed States Index 2006 (FSI 2006). While the devastating earthquake contributed most to Pakistan's tumble in scores from last year, the escalation of internal strife also played a role in Pakistan's ranking. The earthquake, which resulted in the deaths of an estimated 88,000, also displaced millions in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and the North West Frontier Province, which accounts for the high score in indicator 2. Demographic pressures resulting from the earthquake, including the scarcity of food, water and shelter in the months following the quake, resulted in the sharp increase in the indicator rating from a 5.0 on the FSI 2005 to a 9.3 on the FSI 2006. The increase in the score for indicator 3, group grievance, was not only a result of popular unrest following the slow distribution of aid after the earthquake, but also a spike in clashes between government security forces and militants in Baluchistan and the North West Frontier Province. From June to December 2005, clashes occurred almost nonstop resulting in the deaths of hundreds of suspected militants as well as Pakistani security forces. In addition, a widening rift between the government of General Pervez Musharraf and the powerful Pakistani security apparatus and religious leaders became increasingly evident throughout the year. Pressured by the U.S. government to crack down on Islamic fundamentalist groups operating within the country, particularly in the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Musharraf appeared to be losing the balancing act of trying to appease the U.S. while simultaneously not alienating the country's powerful mullahs.
Economic Indicators
Pakistan's economy, already suffering from low levels of foreign investment and a 2005 inflation rate of 9%, was further damaged by the October earthquake. It is officially estimated that 32% of the population live below the poverty line, although the real number is likely to be much higher. In Kashmir and the North West Frontier Province, the earthquake completely destroyed several main towns and devastated the agricultural sector, which accounts for the livelihoods of the majority of citizens in these areas. Pakistan's economy is heavily reliant upon worker remittances and that remained unchanged in 2005. Pakistan's economy was artificially inflated in the months following the earthquake, with billions of dollars of international aid and development assistance pouring in from the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and other donors. One promising economic trend in 2005 was GDP growth (7%), driven by gains on industrial production and the gradual shift away from dependency on the agricultural sector.
Political/Military Indicators
Pakistan's political and military indicators all remained high in the FSI 2006, reflective of the deep divisions within the country and continuing hostilities with neighboring states. The score for indicator 9, human rights, jumped almost half a percentage point as international media reports increasingly focused on Pakistan's deplorable human rights record, particularly with regard to women. In addition, the indicator score for security apparatus remained high, as the shadowy Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) continued to operate as a state within a state. The ISI is believed to wield significant support from Islamic jihadist groups and tensions between the agency and the Musharraf government have been exacerbated by the systematic crackdown on religious groups and madrassas. The indicator score for external intervention also rose in the FSI 2006, due mostly to international relief campaigns following the earthquake and U.S.-led counterinsurgency efforts in the border areas with Afghanistan. Public services remained inadequate throughout the country, with the much of the population not having access to basic medical services, particularly outside of urban areas. While the score for state legitimacy improved in the FSI 2006, the ability of the Musharraf government to reign in Islamic extremists while not completely marginalizing both the security apparatus and religious leaders remained uncertain. Particularly in the frontier provinces, legitimacy has little connection with the central government and tribal affiliations supplant state authority.
Core Five State Institutions
| Leadership | Military | Police | Judiciary | Civil Service |  |  | | | | | Moderate | Good | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | General Pervez Musharraf's leadership has continually been tested since he assumed power in a military coup in 1999. His cooperation with the U.S. in the Global War on Terror, and his crackdown on religious fundamentalists, have undermined his domestic legitimacy to a certain extent with parts of the population sympathetic to the jihadists.
With one major exception, the Pakistani military is well trained and remains under the control of the state, with General Musharraf as the Chief of the Army Staff and Head of State. The questionable element is the ISI, which is believed to operate with near complete impunity.
The police contain both civilian and paramilitary wings. Both the civilian police and the paramilitaries commit human rights abuses and are highly corrupt. Recent efforts to reform the police have resulted in decreased reports of extrajudicial killings and torture, but police still often act with impunity.
The judiciary is overburdened and susceptible to outside manipulation, particularly from powerful religious leaders who monitor the proper interpretation of Sharia law, known as the Hudood ordinances.
The civil service is generally well trained and professional, although underpaid and susceptible to manipulation.
Prognosis
The future of Pakistan is largely dependent on the ability of General Musharraf to maintain the precarious balancing act between cooperating in the Global War on Terror while appeasing the powerful military and religious leaders that are crucial to his power base. In addition, to prevent wider regional destabilization emanating from the lawless border zone between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Musharraf must find a formula that allows for tribal leaders to maintain autonomy but not at the cost of funding the insurgency. International efforts to rebuild the areas of Pakistan affected by the earthquake have been steady, but there still needs to be a stronger government–led drive to address wider Pakistan's chronic poverty and endemic corruption. |
