Seven Year Scorecard: Higher Growth, Lackluster Human Development, Deteriorating Governance
by Abid Hasan ( Former World Bank Advisor)
There is clear consensus that sustained growth is a sine quo non for poverty reduction, and growth can only be sustained through good governance, good institutions and good policies. When he took over power, President Musharaff rightly made these three pillars as cornerstone of his nation building agenda. So where does
Outstanding Achievements
The President and his government have several internationally acclaimed achievements.
From an economic and financial abyss in 1999,
Opening up of the electronic media has led to establishment of a robust watch dog and necessary pillar of a democratic society. Devolution and allocation of one-third of seats to women will have far reaching transformational impact, provided they are implemented in letter and spirit –bringing government closer to the people and giving women a greater say in public policy at grass root level. The economic and social sector reforms initiated in
Banking reforms have moved the banking system from state of bankruptcy and elite capture to a competitive and sound system. Doing business indicators and policy continuity have improved. A spectacular achievement has been the telecommunication revolution .
Finally , the improvement in relations with
Major Disappointments
Perhaps the most disappointing has been the feeble, if any, attempt towards establishing good governance—the bedrock for having a stable, prosperous and vibrant nation. There has been continued soft peddling on hard issues, preferring expediency over nation building.
There has been further 'personalization' of the constitution and weak conviction to its fundamental pillars and enforcing rule of law. No serious effort has been made towards establishing a stable, accountable and clean political system. The political landscape is as bankrupt today, if not more, as it was when the military took over. Most political leaders and elected officials are widely perceived as having been compromised by the security apparatus. The slogan of eliminating "sham" democracy has remained a mere slogan. Another disappointment has been the virtual abandonment of enlightened moderation path, as a result of soft peddling on spread of extremism, intolerance, and women rights.
Other than improvements in a few federal agencies—central bank, CBR, audit and accounts— broad based institutional reforms have not been undertaken. Most public institutions -- education, health, justice, law and order, public health, --- which deliver services to the poor, continue to be weak and ineffective. Decision making continues to be personalized and centralized. Implementation of National Anti-Corruption Strategy has been pathetic. As a result
During the six years since the first poverty reduction strategy was announced, there has been disappointing progress on improving living conditions for the majority. While there has been some reduction in income poverty, the continued high levels of poverty and rising inequality within regions and among people poses grave risks. The poverty strategy is not underpinned by conviction and commitment and its implementation has been uninspiring, other than in
On the macro-economic front vulnerability is increasing due to rising trade and budget deficits, and a flawed growth and FDI strategy.
No wonder, when all the above is taken together,
Putting Pakistan on Sustainable Path of Prosperity and Well being for All
Despite the many successes, the erosion and crumbling of several critical pillars of state will continue to make
2007 is a watershed year for
Critical good governance initiatives are following . First, restoration of the 1973 constitution, while protecting devolution and enhancing provincial autonomy. Second, steps to transform the political system by holding free and fair elections and introducing mechanisms which yield best possible results in terms of integrity and public service commitment of legislators. Three actions are critical. A strong and independent Election Commission and a transparent pre-screening (months ahead of the election) by the Commission to allow only those to contest who meet, in letter and spirit, the criteria laid down in existing election law. A transparent and independently conducted prescreening ( not like EBDO) would ensure that the pool of contestants are men and women of integrity and probity—whose life styles and asset holdings are consistent with their tax returns, who are neither tax dodgers nor loan defaulters, and who have not benefited from abuse of office. Two term limits for all elected offices to ensure continuous infusion of new blood. Out of box electoral reforms are needed to make a clean break from the past, reestablish the credibility and integrity of the political system in the eyes of the people, and minimize sham democracy and capture by the traditional corrupted forces.
Third, develop a national consensus and remedial measures to reduce extremism and intolerance. Fourth , return the military back to its core mission and legally prohibit political activities by the security apparatus
Fifth initiate fundamental institutional reforms focusing on following: (i) key public institutions delivering education, health, public health and police (ii) making NAB fully independent, impartial and stronger( iii) in collaboration with the judiciary ( once the crisis is over), initiate program to establishing a strong and independent judiciary and accelerate self-cleansing so that all judges fully meet the integrity and competence standards expected of them.
In respect of good economics, the following are urgent. First implementing the poverty reduction and MDG strategy on a war footing, with passion and real commitment so that majority does indeed see a difference in their health, education and living standards. This would require strengthening district governments and providing Nazims with a team of the best and the brightest Pakistanis ( from within and outside the civil service) to assist in implementation of the strategy. This team should be selected through a transparent process and provided the necessary resources, incentives and autonomy to effectively implement district based strategies. Second the growth and FDI strategy needs to be revisited to address emerging vulnerabilities. Exports need to be accelerated, non-export FDI should be allowed very selectively until trade gap is narrowed, tax base expanded and public investment decision making made more rigorous and transparent. Third, are constitutional and NFC reforms supported by pro-poor public investment programs, to proactively overcome the deep sense of deprivation among smaller provinces.
Without bold steps in improving governance, strengthening service delivery institutions and re-orienting economic strategy, Pakistan will continue to be a vulnerable state and majority of its people will remain mired in poverty and deprivation. The steps suggested above will ensure that
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