Nadeem Malik

Saturday, January 31, 2009

PAKISTANI Current Affairs Programs Ratings - January 2009 BY PKPOLITICS.COM

Current Affairs Programs Ratings - January 2009

PKPolitics RatingsWe conducted a survey earlier this month (January 2009) through our visitors about the current affairs programs on different TV Channels. Results of the survey has been compiled and we would like to share them with you beginning with some of our own comments:
Live with Talat continues to rock at number 1 in terms of popularity and even gets a 4.65% boost in its ratings since August 2008. Talat Hussain is no doubt the most articulate anchorperson with the strong analytical abilities. He covers diversified topics and also works hard for preparation of programme theme. He dared to present programs focused solely on Research and Analysis, specifically after Mumbai attacks, which required a lots of efforts in contrast to traditional Masala Talk Shows. Talat sometimes gets into exaggeration and gets carried away in his comments and opinions that are often misfit for his otherwise cool but assertive personality.
Off the Record made a huge leap from 4th to 2nd position with 33.10% increase in ratings. Kashif Abbasi is the boldest anchorperson in Pakistani media at the moment. He recently covered very unconventional but very important topics. He is the only anchorperson who can dare to discuss the 'No Go Area' topics. The recent threats to Kashif by the officials also proved the impact of his talk shows on general public. His programmes and initiatives to discuss and the basic questions regarding constitution, rule of law, democracy in political parties, etc. were highly appreciated by audience, specifically by educated community. Kashif sometimes goes off track from the main topic where "Time Pass" becomes the main objective of the program. His other drawback seems to be his affiliation with ARY, a channel that has recently taken a clear U-Turn against the movement for Rule of Law, which is evident from their relatively low coverage of the movement in favour of least important issues, personalities and parties.
Capital Talk slid down from 2nd to 3rd position with 10.19% drop in popularity due to monotonous programmes, but it is still liked by masses due to simple format, simple questions, cunning and sharp personality of Hamid Mir with a good show of his PR as evident by the guests in his shows. Also, sometimes he goes out of studio in search of new topics of public interest. Apart from that massive number of audience for GEO, his columns in Daily Jang are a big plus point for him. He often gets involved in non-objective discussion in attempt to attract more audience by adding spicy questions.
Kal Tak of Express News gained the most and massive ratings of 51.21% in just 5 months and now stands at number 4, gaining a single position from previous number 5. Kal Tak, has recently picked up quite considerably mainly due to success of monologue by Javed Chaudhry in the beginning and at the end of programme. Javed Chaudhry is rated as the most popular Urdu Columnist at the moment and this has become the main strength for success of his programme Kal Tak. Due to his good PR, he often attracts a good panel of guests. Due to less experience in electronic media, he often finds it difficult to moderate the programme properly and the discussions sometimes go out of control. His monologues, though popular in masses, are many times inaccurate and sensational. For Express TV, his programme without any doubt is the brand they can sell as current affairs program.
Meray Mutabiq is at number 5, which makes it a huge comeback for Dr. Shahid Masood since he was not hosting this program until just a few months ago. Dr. Shahid Masood is the most controversial and debated personality of current affairs. Due to his recent job with Government, whatever he say and how true that might be, his personal credibility will take quite some time before it is full recovered. He faced a lot of anger from public at the restart of Meray Mutabiq after the Dry Cleaning drama under the name of Jawab Deyh by Iftikhar Ahmed. But after few weeks of humiliating low ratings, the Gaza crisis put Dr. Shahid Masood on the front foot again as he covered the issue with great depth. The Gaza episodes along with the last episode with attacks focused on Zardari gave his programme a real boost and helped him claim back territory. In short, he is gaining his popularity again if not the respect. After his come back, there has been a mysterious link of all his discussions going to lead a possible Military Takeover in future. Also after his come back, mysteriously it were the pro- establishment circles (supporting otherwise, anti-politician, pro-army, anti- judicial stance) that came to rescue him and were the only voice for him in the beginning.
Bolta Pakistan dropped its ratings 15.43% and slid from number 3 to number 6. Bolta Pakistan was once a top rated popular programme due to its different and unique format, boldness of anchors (when Musharraf was a common target) and finally despite being a Right and Left wing combination, the EXCELLENT synchronisation of both anchors, like top football forwards. But it seems that the COD of anchors of Bolta Pakistan is meeting the same fate as the COD between PMLN and PPP. Nusrat has been the main target of angry audience due to his tilt towards Zardari and Mushtaq also has been obviously looking compromised frequently, as if the only purpose for him is to some how continue the programme even if it is at the cost of popularity of programme. Direct phone calls was and is still a distinct feature of the programme, but recently, the frequency of calls has been reduced that is another factor in the declining popularity of this programme. Often due to some mysterious limitations, they end up discussing topics, not of interest to masses and it raises questions why more important topics were ignored. Their episodes to interview different top politicians were also failure, as in most of the cases, the audience could not get answers to the real questions asked or even to the questions asked by anchors, which leads to the suspicion that this program is just a PR campaign.
Islamabad Tonight with Nadeem Malik makes its space in top 10 programs at number 7, despite being a new presentation from AAJ TV beating many programmes of different channels that were in the market for a long time. Good preparation, presentation and unique way to put pinching questions to the guests using his strong analytical abilities and up-to-date knowledge of Local & Global news and developments are the main strengths of Nadeem Malik. He moderates the programme well and tries his best not to leave the questions go unanswered or diverted to usual fairytales. However, Nadeem needs to change his body language to be more assertive and a bit aggressive in order to get attention of audience at opening of the shows. AAJ TV should also consider rescheduling the programme to cover weekends (Saturday and Sunday) when not many programmes are available. It should create a good opportunity to attract new audience market, at least for next 4-5 months. Making this from 5 episodes per week to 4 would also not be a bad idea, considering the competition within AAJ TV, and due to the fact that not many unique topics are available in the market and redundancy may decrease the overall ratings of programme.
________________________________________________________
Summary of Results:
A total of 1,000 votes were allowed, where every user was asked to tell us the top 10 programs of his choice, out of which the first 5 were mandatory. The ratings were calculated by using weights for each position of the choice in descending order.
For instance, we counted the number of times Live with Talat was voted in top position, 2nd position and so on. We used 10 as weight for the top choice position, 9 for second and so on until "1″ weight for last position.
The ratings for the top programs are fairly accurate as per the choice of visitors of PKPolitics. The ratings for lower programs are not so accurate due to the fact that the last 5 options were optional, as well as PKPolitics does not publish most of these programs regularly.
The ratings of TV channels were generated by calculating the sum of all their programs:
AAJ TV Ratings = Live with Talat + Bolta Pakistan + Islamabad Tonight + 4 Man Show + Control Line
Geo Ratings = Capital Talk + Hum Sab Umeed + Meray Mutabiq + Kamran Khan + 50 Minutes + Left Right + Jawab Deyh + Choraha + Crises Cell + Nadia
Express Ratings = Kal Tak + Column Kaar + Siyasi Log
ARY OneWorld Ratings = Off the Record + Insight with Javed Malik + Second Opinion + Focus with Faeza + Deadline + QA with PJ Mir + Swal Yeh Hay
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Note: You might want to look at the ratings that were conducted in August 2008 by going to this post. The first and only ratings for Urdu Columnists can be found here.
If you are related to any Media Group and would like to get comparative ratings of your programs, then please feel free to contact us at "media at pkpolitics dot com".
Ratings of All Programs:
Live with Talat: 7101
Off the Record: 6341
Capital Talk: 5651
Kal Tak: 5435
Meray Mutabiq: 4900
Bolta Pakistan: 4753
Islamabad Tonight: 2330
Siyasi Log: 1818
Second Opinion: 1627
Column Kaar: 1367
Jawab Deyh: 400
Kamran Khan: 162
Brass Tacks: 105
Choraha: 34
4 Man Show: 29
50 Minutes: 29
Lucman Show: 28
Hum Sab Umeed Say Hain: 27
Siyasat Aur Pakistan: 18
Focus With Faeza: 15
Control Line: 13
Crises Cell: 10
Left Right: 10
Pulse with Jasmine: 10
Imran Khan: 9
Meidi Sarkar - Rohi TV: 9
Nadia Khan: 9
News Eye - Dawn TV: 9
Newsweekly - Dawn TV: 9
Insight with Javed Malik: 8
Policy Matters with Naseem Zehra: 8
Sana Tariq: 8
Deadline: 7
Dr. Shaista Wahidi: 7
Siyasat Aur Hum: 7
Bachhay Man Ke Sachchay: 7
QA with Mir Jafer: 6
Siyah Safaid: 6
Haroon Rasheed: 4
Ankahi Samaa TV: 3
Sawal Yeh Hai: 3
Apnay Andaz Say: 2
Sajjad Mir News One: 2
Aftab Iqbal Duniya TV: 1
Barwaqt: 1
Dr. Danish: 1
Kiran and George: 1
Liarry King Live: 1
Mujahid Barilvi - CNBC: 1
PTV News: 1
QA with PJ Mir: 1



 
 
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N A D E E M   M A L I K
Director Programme
AAJ TV
ISLAMABAD
00-92-321-5117511

nadeem.malik@hotmail.com 




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Friday, January 30, 2009

Hizb ut Tahrir Digest 30 Jan - Gaza Campaign - Undeclared War on Pakistan

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30th January 2009

Assalamu alaikum wa rahmatullahi wa barakatu

This digest from Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain, the Global Islamic Political Party, comes in the week the new President of the USA, Barack Obama, ordered the bombing of villages in Afghanistan and Pakistan directly causing the killing of many innocents including women and children. Earlier there was deafening silence from Obama during Israel’s three-week murderous military campaign, which conveniently ended on the eve of his inauguration, with over 1300 people martyred in Gaza, 100 times the number of Israelis killed over the same period. Barely a week into his presidency Barack Obama thus appears to be seamlessly continuing major planks of the Bush foreign policy legacy.

Deconstructing the rhetoric we challenge Obama mania in the west where desperation and despair under capitalism has left people frantically looking for any hope.

During the weeks that Israel bombed Gaza from land, sea and air the Muslim community in Britain were moblised by Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain in a series of national demonstrations, with tens of thousands marching to the embassies of Muslim countries in central London over three consecutive weekends. In the last week Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain’s Gaza Campaign has focused on local community activities with a strong procession in East London and a women’s only seminar in west London. These events were supported by direct action in the form of letters, emails and telephone calls to Muslims embassies in order to account and challenge officials for Arab and Muslim rulers’ inaction in defending the people of Gaza.

Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain also comments on the BBC’s decision not to give airtime to a Gaza humanitarian appeal.

We hope you find this digest useful. Please forward the digest to friends, family and acquaintances and help spread the call for Islam and revival.

Action for Gaza Campaign in the Community

Upcoming Events

Action for Gaza: Gaza Massacre, East London

Saturday 31 Jan 2009 at 18.15. Shalom Centre – 395 High Street North, London E12 6PG Read More

Action for Gaza: Muslim Armies must defend Gaza, Manchester

Sunday 1 Feb 2009 at 11:00am. Pakistani Community Association - 481 Stockport Road, Longsight, Manchester M12 4NN Read More

Action for Gaza: Gaza Massacre, Walthamstow

Sunday 1 Feb 2009 at 18.00. Asian Centre – 18a Orford Road, Walthamstow London E17 9LN.Read More

Action for Gaza: Gaza Massacre, Whitechapel

Wednesday 4 Feb 2009 at 19.30. Berner TA Hall – Ponler Street, London E1 1QN Read More

SPEECHES: ACTION FOR GAZA - Muslim Armies must defend Gaza, West London

Sultanah Parvin, Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain’s women’s deputy media representative and other speakers outlined how the collusion of the Arab-Muslim rulers was the main reason why Muslims in Gaza can be so easily bombed, killed and maimed. Despite having armies of close to 2 million soldiers surrounding Palestine, they stood by and watched as Israel carried out the Gaza genocide. Read More

VIDEO: ACTION FOR GAZA - Whitechapel Procession - Remember the Dead & those who Betrayed

Angered by the Israeli onslaught on Gaza hundreds of Muslims marched through the streets of Whitechapel including Brick Lane and Canon Street to highlight the plight of the Muslims in Palestine and called on the Arab armies to rise up, remove their rulers and defend the people of Gaza.Read More

Community Campaign Pictures: Action for Gaza - Emergency meeting to address Gaza crisis in Reading

Over 120 members of Reading's Muslim community gathered on 1.1.09 at an emergency meeting arranged to address and discuss the ongoing crisis in Gaza. The emergency meeting was attended by a broad cross section of the community including young professionals, businessmen and Mosque representatives.Read More

Campaign Pictures: Action for Gaza - Gaza Attacked, Deceived and Abandoned, Slough

Nearly one hundred people gathered on Thursday 15 January at an event about the crisis in Gaza organised by members of Hizb ut-Tahrir in Slough, at the Slough Tennis Centre. Men and women of all ages, and Imams from the local mosques attended the meeting which began with a video showing the true nature of the suffering afflicting the people in Gaza. The video revealed the horrific realities that much of the western media chooses not to reveal to the public. Read More

Weekly central London public address: Being Steadfast on the Truth on the issue of Palestine

Every Saturday afternoon, in central London, members of Hizb ut Tahrir discuss issues affecting Muslims. The audio link below presents Hizb ut- Tahrir's address on being steadfast on the Truth on the issue of Palestine. Read More

Video: A Cry To The Muslim Armies

A video presentation showing the plight of the Muslims around the world including the recent conflict in Gaza, highlighting the unified response of Muslims around the world calling upon the armies in the Muslim World to rise up, unify the Ummah and defend the people of Palestine.Read More

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Obama and America’s Undeclared war on Pakistan

Obama continues undeclared war on Pakistan with another US missile strike

In his inaugural address,President Obama said “to the Muslimworld, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect”, yet his opening salvo has been to kill more innocent civilians in missile strikes in Pakistan. This continuation of the Bush policy shows Obama is more a change of style than a change of substance. Read More

Obama will be more of a 'makeover' than a 'remaking' of the US

Commenting on Obama’s inauguration, Taji Mustafa, media representative of Hizb ut-Tahrir Britain said, “America is not one man. America is its institutions, which have compromised the very principles they claim to uphold. America has its capitalist system whose weaknesses lie exposed. One man can never change those problems that are systemic in a state, no matter how eloquently he pledges to do so. Read More

Obama’s Presidency: Symbolism is not enough

Obama’s rhetoric and speeches have raised countless hopes of fundamental change among the most desperate and disenfranchised in American society yet Obama knows that he needs the continued backing of the status quo which will in turn constrain his ability to deliver any real change. While there is clearly symbolism in his Presidency hundreds of millions are longing for a lot more than that and would be quite insulted and angered if that’s all they got!Read More

Weekly central London public address: Barack Obama

Every Saturday afternoon, in central London, members of Hizb ut Tahrir discuss issues affecting Muslims. Shortly following his inauguration this audio link below presents Hizb ut- Tahrir's address on Barack Obama.Read More

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Hizb ut-Tahrir Comments

The BBC’s insistence on impartiality exposes its hardline Israeli bias

TThe BBC hides behind the facade of impartiality in denying airtime for a Gaza charitable appeal given that nothing about Israeli’s murderous three-week bombing campaign was fair or balanced. Read More

BBC's political bias over the Gaza Charity scandal follows that of the British Government

The BBC's current stance is entirely consistent with both its coverage of the Gaza massacre and the government's stance on the massacre. Both chose to portray it as some even handed military conflict rather than what it actually was - a massacre of 1300 men women and children - mostly unarmed. Read More

Capitalism is ideologically bankrupt and in denial

The deepening economic crisis is fundamentally due to the failure to acknowledge and accept flaws in Capitalism. A dogmatic attachment to the capitalist creed has led to an incorrect assessment of systemic problems and with the wrong diagnosis, the ‘solutions’ have obviously not brought an end to the crisis. In fact, it’s worsening by the day with ever more panicked and desperate measures being proposed and implemented. Read More

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In the Media

Gaza Massacre

Egypt's Mubarak: Hamas invited Israeli offensive

Turkey offers to ship oil, gas to India via Israel

Ritual murder in Gaza

Israel admits to use of phosphorous after initial denial

More evidence of Gaza child deaths

Gaza Crisis: Arab Regimes React with Routine Repression

BBC says no to airing of Gaza Disaster Appeal

Impotent Arab leaders fail to agree on plan to assist Gaza

Livni makes light of Gaza civilian casualty

Gaza: 'I watched an Israeli soldier shoot dead my two little girls'

Obama and America’s Undeclared war on Pakistan

Obama the imperialist

US cuts Pakistan’s aid for fighting terrorism

Obama's torture ban that doesn’t ban torture

Oil, Obama, Pakistan

'Obama gave green light to Pak attacks'

Obama calls Pakistan, Afghanistan 'the central front' in terror war

Obama orders air strikes on villages in tribal area

US kills 15 civilians in Afghanistan

Society

Britain is 'Increasingly at Ease With Racial Diversity Than Religion': Survey

British Jews attacked for pro-Gaza solidarity

Burglaries up as recession starts to take its toll

Prince Al-Waleed reviewing portfolio after losing $8.26Bn in Citigroup

Unless we are decisive Britain faces bankruptcy

Back to top

 


Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Ho gay jawan bachay borhi ho rahi ha maa

Ho gay jawan bachay borhi ho rahi ha maa

 

Ho gay jawan bachay borhi ho rahi ha maa,
Be chirag ankhon main khawab bo rahe ha maa,
Roti apnay hissay ki de kar apnay bachon ko,
Sabr ki rida orhay bhooki so rahi ha maa,
Saans ki mariza ha phr b thanday pani se kitni sardi main kapray dho rahi hai maa,
Ghair ki shikayat pr phr kisi shararat pr,
Maar kr mujhay khud he ro rahi ha ma,
Khelnay se jo mujh ko rokti thi mitti main,
Orh kr usi miti ko aj so rahi ha maa !


 
 
-----------------------------------------------------------
N A D E E M   M A L I K
Director Programme
AAJ TV
ISLAMABAD
00-92-321-5117511

nadeem.malik@hotmail.com 




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Saturday, January 24, 2009

The Economic Way forward---- The issue of author

Just to clarify that the Article was originally written by a high ranking government official and contents were discussed and agreed with former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz before its publication--Mr. Aziz fully agreed with all the details, but he said it was written by someone else.
This is for confirmation and clarification regarding questions that many people sent me that who wrote this article..  If you want to quote a source, you can quote this blog. Nadeem Malik
 
 

The Economic Way forward



When I was asked to write a piece on the economic way forward, I hesitated at first because I felt that with a new government in place it is better that we leave the way forward to the new economic managers rather than play the role of back seat drivers and provide unsolicited advise.
 
But the mountain of criticism of the previous government policies from all sorts of armchair critics, ranging from retired bureaucrats and economists of the cold war era who still believe in the supremacy of state management of the economy and for whom Venezuela and Bolivia are the new role models, to islamists who feel that the entire western global economic system is doomed and we need to chalk out a new paradigm, convinced me that perhaps the time had come to analyze the past and set the record straight, assess the current situation and contribute to the debate on the way forward.

Now that we have the political parties of the nineties back in power it can be instructive to examine a few economic indicators of the nineties with the past eight years and draw inferences. Since the economic growth numbers have been challenged by the critics.  I will use numbers that are not subject to disagreement. So for example, if the GDP growth numbers are being challenged other growth indicators that the public can understand can show the reality. The official GDP growth from around US $ 65 billion in 1999-2000 to US$ 165 billion in 2007-08 (a factor of 2.5 times) is challenged as being fudged but growth of credit to the private sector over the same time period from Rs one trillion to Rs 2.5 trillion, again a factor of 2.5 times, cannot be challenged.

The data shows that while electricity consumption grew by 1300 Gwh per year in the decade of the nineties it grew by 3750 Gwh per year from 2000 to 2008 a factor of 2.8 times. Gas consumption grew by 20 billion cft per year in the nineties compared with 80 billion cft per year from 2000 to 2007 a factor of four times. The revenue collection by FBR increased from Rs 300 billion in 1999 to over one trillion in 2008 Foreign investment that averaged around $ 500 million per year in the nineties touched over $ 8 billion in 2008 alone. Remittances that were around one billion in 1999 have crossed six billion in 2008.
 
Development spending that was US$ 1.5 billion in 1999 touched $7.5 billion in 2007. Exports that were $7.5 billion in 1999 reached $18 billion in 2007. Foreign exchange reserves that were around a billion dollars in 1999 reached over 16 billion in 2007. Stock market index that was around 1300 in 1999 touched its highest level of 15,700 in April 2008 a factor of 12 times that placed the KSE as one of the best performing stock markets of the world. The exchange rate showed remarkable stability over the past eight years. Credit rating improved from selective default in 1999 to B+ and B1 by 2007.

Since the February elections and the advent of the new government economic indicators have sharply deteriorated. The Currency has fallen by 25 percent against the Dollar, the stock market index has fallen by 6700 points from its peak in April leading to an asset value loss of 43 percent amounting to loss of market capitalization of around US $ 40 billion; the largest loss in the history of Pakistan. This loss of confidence in the economy of Pakistan has been unprecedented

We can trace the loss of confidence by the foreign investor by examining the spread on the US dollar global bonds that we issued in May 2007. These bonds were issued at the start of the lawyers movement and its associated turmoil. The bond was a huge success with over subscription  of seven times amounting to $ 3.5 billion while we were seeking only $500 million. The spread was 180 basis points above US government ten year securities. As the lawyers movement continued to gain strength in mid 2007, the spread on the bonds jumped to 300 basis points in July and 400 basis points by November when the emergency was imposed.
 
In December when BB was assassinated the spread jumped to 600 basis points. However, after the elections, the investor community welcomed the peaceful transition by pushing the spread down to 500 points. The stock market also reacted favorably and reached its highest point of 15700 in our history in April, 2008. Since then our chaotic politics and lack of focus on economic issues has led to the collapse of the stock market to 9000 points and the spread has jumped to almost a 1000 points. So what events produced these results, between April and now.

In the previous government we had been highly successful in crafting a very positive brand image of Pakistan as one of the fastest growing emerging economies in Asia. After our exit from the IMF program and a successful reforms.  Investors favorably compared Pakistan to India, China and Vietnam. Every time we did a road show we were highly successful in our endeavors whether it was the OGDC flotation or UBL GDR or Euro bonds or large privatizations, investors flocked to our offerings. We were a success story in the international financial markets and most of our issues became benchmark issues. Unfortunately, this Government has not been able to maintain Pakistan Brand rather it has eroded considerably.

In this erosion the first stone was foolishly cast by our erstwhile finance minister Mr. Ishaq Dar who displayed incredible irresponsibility and immaturity in lambasting the Pakistani economy in front of the global media; at a time when the global investment community was looking towards the new government for its economic vision and future strategy the new finance minister harangued them on how bad the Pakistan economy was. In spite of this onslaught the rating agencies maintained their ratings until as in their words the new government comes up with its economic game plan. The new government was at this time caught up in utter confusion on the economic direction of the country with rapid changes in the finance setup and revolving finance ministers.

This lack of focus was disastrous for us as against this back ground, our financing plan included a number of financial market transactions totaling around $ 4 billion that were ready for the road shows. These included the National Bank, Habib Bank, and KAPCO. The exchangeable bond issue of OGDC, and the strategic sale of PSO shares along with management control. With the stock market at an all time high the transactions would have been a great success and the road shows would have generated tremendous good will for the new government and would have highlighted the smooth transition that happened in Pakistan. It would have been a great opportunity to showcase Pakistan in front of the international investment community.

Instead in an inexplicable move the Government cancelled all the transactions. Pakistan directly lost desperately needed inflows of $ 4 billion and with the rising oil import bill this loss placed a huge pressure on the reserves and the currency. Indirectly the loss was probably twice as much as foreign investors withdrew to the sidelines and domestic investors moved their investments overseas. It might be mentioned that while the government failed to take advantage of the window of opportunity, The MCB bank taking advantage of the great valuations on the stock market in April 2008 privately placed some 20% of their equity with a Malaysian bank for a cool sum of $ 850 million.
 
If the Government had acted similarly, it could have generated sufficient flows to prevent the meltdown which ensued. Reserves drawdown would have been avoided, the spread on our international bonds would have narrowed down to May 2007 levels, borrowing from the State Bank would have been halved and the government would have had a stable environment for tackling the oil import bill and food inflation. Our current predicament is clearly a creation of our current economic miss-management. A few heads should have rolled because of this incredible lapse

What could have been done in April/May 2008 with the market at 15700 points cannot be done in September/ October 2008 with the market at 9100 points.  The international markets are closed to us. We have to wait until our markets get back to their historical levels and investor confidence is restored. How will this be achieved? The biggest challenge for President Zardari is to restore the eroded &;Pakistan Brand; back to its original luster and in the process revive the investment flows that can sustain our growth going forward.

First, while we should be on the right side of the world in the war on terror, the world should seriously help us in our endeavor to build a better economic  future for our people. The new president has to focus on the economic issues facing the country. His international trips to China, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, USA, UK should promote Pakistan economic interests as a pivotal objective. He should not only promote government to government economic cooperation but also promote private sector to private sector interaction with these countries. We need strong, immediate and implement able commitments of around $5 billion balance of payment support from these countries.
 
In addition their leadership at the highest levels should support international moves to promote our economic growth and stability. Better and preferential access to EU and USA markets, greater quotas for labor and deferred payments for oil in Saudi Arabia and Gulf region. A full calendar of investment conferences and single country exhibitions need to be carried out under the direction of the president. The promotion of exports and investments has to be the major focus and objective of the President. If we can generate  foreign investments greater than last year level of $ 8 billion and export growth is revived to healthy double digit levels we would start coming out of the current malaise.

Second, it is clear that Pakistan  growing trade and current account deficit is being driven by ever escalating oil prices. With the oil bill crossing $12 billion a year there is no option other than passing the full prices to the consumers and eliminate the burden on the budget. This will also help in promoting conservation and improving energy efficiency. Unfortunately the transition to a new government took place at a time of unprecedented increase in global fuel prices. For example at the time of elections oil prices were around $80 a bbl whereas by July 2008 it had reached $140 a bbl.
 
While we had planned to limit the fiscal deficit  to be under 6 percent and largely financing it from non state bank sources, including commercial bank borrowing and non debt sources. The new government ended up with a much higher deficit level and financed it totally from the state bank. We have now reached a stage where the issue is no longer energy availability rather it is energy affordability. We have almost 20000 MW of power generation capacity but we are only using 12000 MW because the Furnace oil used for thermal generation has become extremely expensive and beyond the ability of Pepco to pay for.
 
As a result available capacity is not being used leading to load shedding. The exorbitant power price increase can only be avoided in the short run if transmission and distribution losses are dramatically curtailed and in the medium term we substitute imported fuel with domestic sources. Thermal power based on imported oil costs around Rs 16 per unit (Kwh) whereas hydel power from Kalabagh would cost Rs 2 per unit. The power from Thar coal will cost around Rs 8 per unit. While Kalabagh can be completed in five years, Technical problems with Thar coal can delay its availability indefinitely.
 
If the mega Kalabagh Dam is launched in 2008 it will not only jump start the economy  it will also be seen as President Zardari;s gift of Hydel Power to Pakistan just like PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Gift of Nuclear Power to Pakistan thirty five years ago. Third, as far as inflation is concerned it will start coming under control as global oil and food prices filter through the economy. Our Inflation index is heavily weighted in favor of food energy and commodity prices. So it is highly sensitive to these prices. Since global energy and food prices are easing the same should be felt in Pakistan in the days to come.
 
Pakistan's inflation is a supply side and cost push phenomenon and further monetary tightening would not help. Instead a tighter fiscal policy with a lower deficit target and phasing out of borrowing from the state bank will help. At the same time in this period of great change we should ensure that the poor of the poorest are able to cope with the changes particularly higher food prices and social safety nets are made fool proof so that nobody in Pakistan stays hungry.

Fourth, for the first time after 2nd world war agriculture commodity prices have moved in favor of the farmers. We have to ensure that we pass on this benefit of higher global prices to our farmers by deregulating agriculture prices. The only other incentive our farmers need is predictable water supply. This can be ensured by building more water reservoirs and better water management so that farmers can move from unpredictable subsistence agriculture to commercial agriculture. Study after study in the sub-continent has shown that large multi purpose dams are the quickest way out of poverty.
 
With oil prices at $100 per barrel and destined to double over the next decade there is no way, other than developing our full hydel potential quickly to usher in a new green revolution and providing sustainable global advantage to our economy of cheap hydel power. Fifth, we should stop cribbing about the Consumer economy. Pakistan is a large country with 160 million people and 100 million under the age of 25. With dependency ratios going down we can reap a demographic dividend over the next several decades.
 
While these youngster have to be prepared for the work force they are already becoming a huge engine of growth for our markets that are growing at fabulous rates to meet the demands of these Pakistani baby boomers, Just like in Europe and South Korea after the 2nd world war, our baby boomers will be the back bone of our middle class and will determine the growth of our economy over the next 40 years until they start to retire

This gives our businesses an historic opportunity to grow and produce the goods and services the population needs. In an era when world is facing a crisis of aging populations we are blessed with opportunities of a young and dynamic population. In this regard consumer financing which has become a butt of criticism has just scratched the surface. In our country consumer finance is around 5 % of GDP whereas in the developed world it is over 100% of GDP. Consumer financing has a long way to go and along the way it will continue to be one of the engines of growth for us. Any ill founded moves to curtail the consumer economy will hamper the growth of our businesses.
 
We are now going beyond textiles into engineering, electronics, chemicals, food processing, construction materials, real estate and many other sectors based on our domestic markets as these markets continue to expand we will reach economies of scale that will make our producers and the large associated vendor industry competitive on a global scale and the same producers will be the base for diversifying our exports into more sophisticated and fast growing sectors of the world. Ultimately if our law and order permits and our national psyche adopts rules of globalization, and globalization as our road to prosperity we will become one of the workshops of the world along with India and China.
 
Sixth, there are hundreds of infrastructure projects at various stages of implementation including the National trade corridor, Neelum Jhelum hydro power project, KKH upgradation, Urban renewal in Karachi and Lahore, mass transport projects, airports, Baluchistan road network ,Gawadar port, industrial parks etc., these projects have to be completed on time and scope. The last government also created an Infrastructure project development facility (IPDF) that needs to be fully utilized so that we can bump up (almost double ) our expenditure on infrastructure particularly hydel projects through public private partnerships.

Seventh, The FBR has to continue generating revenues for the government to carry out the nation building programs. Last year a target of over 4 trillion rupees was set for FBR within the next ten years, four times the current levels reaching about 16 % of GDP. Along with a target of 4 percent of GDP for education expenditures with 1.5 % allocated to university education. The education strategy was based on providing universal access to primary education, retaining enrollments into secondary education and technical and vocational training and improving standards at the college and university levels.
 
Nine new engineering universities in collaboration with European, Korean and Chinese universities were in the pipeline. Going forward we should focus on quality improvement through a big push forward in teacher training, curriculum development and public private partnerships at the primary and secondary schools level and continued efforts to upgrade the universities and hopefully achieving the setup of the new engineering schools. The national vocational and technical education commission (NAVTEC) has gone through its learning curve and can now be used to upscale its programs to give technical and vocational training a quantum jump.

Eighth, in the financial sector we have created a world class banking system with our banks featuring amongst the leaders in Asia. The Quality of our bankers is second to none and can work in any global setting. The challenge is to further increase the reach and competitiveness of the financial sector with Microfinance playing a much greater role. Our microfinance frameworks are the best in the world and a strong base has been established which can grow manifold to bring financial services to the masses. The growth of the financial sector will continue at a sizzling rate as the financial sector expands into consumer and housing finance, rural and agriculture finance and development of debt and bond markets, growth of mutual funds, pension funds and other savings instruments.

Ninth, in the competitiveness area we must continue to deregulate and privatize the economy to create a vibrant and competitive economy. Second generation reforms in economic management have to be continued. An essential pillar of a private sector led market economy, the Competition Commission has to be given financial independence and allowed to work unhindered. The competitiveness support fund, business support fund, agriculture support fund, Khushal Pakistan fund, Smeda etc. have to be used to implement reforms that help the market economy become more productive and competitive from the grass roots level up to the corporate level.

Finally Pakistan needs to continue to grow at 7 to 8 percent to create the 3 to 4 million new jobs per year needed to accommodate our youth and create a dent in poverty in our lifetime. We cannot embrace isolationism, jihadism or any other form of global confrontationist movements. Instead we have to build on our successes, unleash the potential of our people, exploit our competitive advantages, take advantage of global finance, integrate with global markets, and continue building a dynamic market economy with world class infrastructure to achieve our growth objectives This is the recipe for the future and the way forward for Pakistan.


 
 
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N A D E E M   M A L I K
Director Programme
AAJ TV
ISLAMABAD
00-92-321-5117511

nadeem.malik@hotmail.com 




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KERRY: Pakistan needs our support


Washington Times

Friday, January 23, 2009

KERRY: Pakistan needs our support

John Kerry

OP-ED:

 

As America's second post-9/11 President takes office, a single country has become ground zero for the terrorist threat we face. The consensus among our intelligence agencies is that top Al Qaeda leaders are plotting their next attack from Pakistan, where the prevalence of religious extremists and nuclear weapons make that country the central, crucial front in our struggle to protect America from terrorism. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, has called the border region the "site of planning for the next attack" on the United States.

 

Pakistan is under enormous pressure from all sides, from tensions with India to a ferocious insurgency in the tribal belt to a financial crisis that threatens the solvency of the Pakistani state. And all of this is being held together by a fledgling civilian government not even a year old. For our sake and theirs, America must do more to help Pakistan.

 

Crucial to this effort will be finding a winning regional strategy that recognizes the centrality of Pakistan's relationships with neighbors such as Afghanistan and India.

 

It has become conventional wisdom that the war in Afghanistan can be lost in Pakistan, whose tribal belt offers a sanctuary from which Taliban insurgents launch cross-border raids against us and our Afghan allies. What is often overlooked, however, is that the opposite is true as well: Violent instability in Afghanistan can undercut essential counterinsurgency efforts in Pakistan.

 

We saw brutal evidence of this in the recent attack on the Pakistani Frontier Corps by militants operating from clandestine bases across the border inside Afghanistan. Pakistan's success in exerting control over its tribal areas depends on U.S. and NATO forces getting the resources they need to accomplish their mission on the Afghan side of the border.

 

Similarly, as the aftermath of the November terror attacks in Mumbai reminded us, getting Pakistan to focus its military on extremist sanctuaries that endanger American troops also depends on lowering tensions with India. We must work assiduously to help Pakistan and India to find a path back to the bilateral peace talks which were disrupted by the Mumbai attacks.

 

I recently returned from South Asia, and my conversations there left me with some observations that may be helpful in explaining how and why we must support Pakistan and its people.

 

While there is an increasingly broad consensus that Pakistan is the strategic center of gravity for defeating insurgents in Afghanistan, a military strategy alone cannot prevail on either side of the border. An effective counter-insurgency must address longer-term political, economic, and development challenges, especially in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas and the Northwest Frontier Province on the Afghan border.

 

This is why I will seek swift passage of the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act, which would triple non-military assistance to Pakistan through projects that will directly support the Pakistani people, strengthen democratic institutions, promote economic freedoms, and encourage investment in the agriculture, education and infrastructure sectors.

 

In my recent travels, I met with the leadership. While I believe President Asif Ali Zardari, Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Lt. General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the intelligence chief, are credible in their commitment to defeating the militant factions threatening their country, as always it will be the follow-through that counts.

 

As vital as civilian aid will be in Pakistan's success, we also need to provide the tools to fight the extremists. The list ranges from electronic detection and communications equipment to helicopters that can move swiftly in the inhospitable terrain of the tribal belt. We can do this and still demand greater accountability from Pakistan's military.

 

Pakistan is experiencing a dire and crippling financial crisis. In just one year, the country's reserves have declined 75 percent to $3.45 billion, forcing Pakistan to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a rescue package.

 

America must lead an international effort to protect Pakistan from financial collapse. Pakistan's leaders will have to act responsibly in the months ahead - but by necessity they will also look increasingly to the international community for support. Passage of the partnership act will be a good start, but not enough to stave off the risk that Pakistan's fragile civilian government will be shaken by severe economic unrest. Future international aid packages should include verifiable guarantees that the money will be spent on economic development that helps the Pakistani people. And as we do, we should leverage our assistance to restore belief in the legitimacy of our mission.

 

While our support is crucial, key to the success of all of these efforts will be the Pakistani leadership's ability to resolve outstanding political issues so it can focus on the difficult challenges of governing.

 

For all its challenges, Pakistan remains a vital partner in our efforts against Al Qaeda's global insurgency. My recent visits have convinced me that success in Afghanistan demands that we help build a stable and moderate Pakistan. That means our relationship with Pakistan cannot begin and end with helping its military - we must also speak directly to its people and its civilian government. Pakistan's prosperity and its security - as well as our own - depend on it.

 

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., his party's presidential nominee in 2004, is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.


 
 
-----------------------------------------------------------
N A D E E M   M A L I K
Director Programme
AAJ TV
ISLAMABAD
00-92-321-5117511

nadeem.malik@hotmail.com 




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